MARKET COMMENTARY

The 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended on November 12th, but its impact lingers. Key economic data on jobs, inflation, and retail sales remain frozen or delayed, leaving investors navigating in the dark.

U.S. equities whipsawed last week: a sharp Monday sell-off gave way to a tech-led recovery by Friday's close. With volatility rising, traders grappled with data scarcity and unresolved policy questions heading into the holiday season. Below, I•ve shared what's driving the markets.

Stock Index Performance 

• The S&P 500 ticked up 0.08%. 
• The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.21%. 
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34%.

Holiday Cheer or Fear?

• Expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts are dimming. Repeated hawkish commentary from key officials • citing stubborn core inflation and sticky wages • has pushed market pricing for the next rate cut from near-certainty down to below 50% odds by December.
• This uncertainty is driving clear risk aversion for retail investors, who are signaling a marked retreat from volatile assets. Meanwhile, institutional investors are buying the dip even as concerns spread across Wall Street.
• Indeed, JPMorgan's position offers a window into Wall Street's consensus: The economy absorbed shocks, AI kept driving earnings, mergers and acquisitions revived, tariffs hit prices more than growth, and the dollar's slide has run its course. Their prescription stays unchanged: remain invested, stay diversified, and use volatility to upgrade holdings.
• Despite S&P 500 earnings growth running at 13% year-over-year, the index has stalled recently as investors weigh key macroeconomic factors, leaving top asset allocators focused on sector divergence (different market sectors experiencing markedly different performance) and forward guidance over headline earnings strength.

The Week Ahead

• Wall Street enters a critical period dominated by delayed economic data, corporate earnings, and shifting global policy signals. ​Release of the delayed September jobs report on Thursday, Nov. 20, could set the tone for risk assets and Fed policy expectations. Initial Jobless Claims, also on Thursday, and continuing claims will provide real-time insight into employment trends as investors look for confirmation of labor market resilience or new cracks.
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) October Meeting Minutes, to be released on Wednesday, Nov. 19, will be closely scrutinized for hints about the December and 2026 rate path, with the market currently split on the likelihood of a pause versus a cut.​ Fed officials• speeches and press appearances will also remain critical for parsing policy direction.
• Nvidia, the largest company by market value, reports earnings on Wednesday, Nov. 19. It will be a bellwether for AI and tech sector sentiment, with skittish investors looking to its guidance for cues on broader growth equity prospects.

The convergence of the delayed jobs report, Fed minutes, and bellwether earnings will heavily influence market sentiment, asset allocation, and portfolio hedging strategies through Thanksgiving week.