MARKET COMMENTARY

Last week's dominant narrative pitted a still-solid U.S. economy against persistent inflation pressures and continued geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. This was highlighted as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the March 17-18 meeting.

The ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has continued to rattle sentiment. Brent crude oil prices surged over the past week, but fell as the Trump Administration signaled a potential for resolution on Monday morning. Additionally, equities struggled to sustain any recovery, ending the week with a fourth consecutive weekly loss.

Here•s where we ended the week, and a look behind what•s driving the numbers.

Stock Index Performance 

• The S&P 500 declined 1.90%.
• The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.98%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.11%.

What Moved Markets

• The Fed is in no rush to cut. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%•3.75%, in line with expectations. Chair Powell acknowledged that rising energy prices stemming from tension in the Middle East could push inflation higher in the near term. Rate cuts are not imminent, and the Fed is firmly standing pat.
• Inflation is still uncooperative. February's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.4%•the largest 12-month gain since February 2025. The underlying drivers were broadly elevated, not the result of any single outlier. Inflation is not yet moving convincingly back toward the Fed's 2% target, and higher oil prices could extend that timeline.
• The job market gives policymakers cover to wait. Weekly jobless claims fell to 205,000, a sign that layoffs are still low even as hiring has softened. A resilient labor market reduces any urgency to act. Patience, not pivots, seems to be the current operating mode for policymakers. 
• Uncertain sentiment regarding Iran. Over the past few weeks, the conflict in Iran has set markets into chaos as oil prices surged and commentary from world leaders continued to shake sentiment. Most notably, on Saturday, President Trump issued a threat of military action if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully opened by Iran. However, Monday morning saw the President announce that Iran and the U.S. had been engaged in productive discussions regarding a resolution to the conflict, leading to a surge in markets. 

The Week Ahead 

Preliminary March Purchasing Managers• Index (PMI) readings on March 24 will reveal whether the economy is still expanding or starting to lose steam. Markets will focus on services activity, new orders, and prices paid. Any weakness could stoke recession fears, while a strong print keeps a tighter Fed narrative firmly in place.

The war in Iran continues to drive volatility, with traders sensitive to any escalation that pushes energy prices higher. Elevated oil isn't just a headline risk. It hits corporate margins, consumer spending, and bond yields simultaneously, complicating the path forward for both growth and inflation.

It's a noisy environment right now, and that's exactly when having a long-term plan can matter most.