Markets rallied hard last week. Softer jobs data
eased worries about a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike; at the same time,
standout AI earnings continued to roll in, though lofty expectations caused
some stocks to slide.
U.S. equities posted their biggest weekly gains since April,
with the S&P 500 closing at a new high, even as the economy still runs hot
enough to keep inflation a real concern.
Stock Index Performance
- The S&P 500 climbed 3.58%.
- The Nasdaq 100 surged 5.12%.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.96%.
The Balancing Act
Jobs slow, growth holds. Hiring came
in far weaker than expected in July, with prior months revised down sharply,
raising fresh questions about the labor market's health. Yet the Purchasing
Managers' Index (PMI) showed manufacturing activity at its highest
level in more than four years in July, while rising costs remained a persistent
undercurrent. This means that the Fed is caught between a shakier job market
than previously indicated and inflation that hasn't gone away.
Earnings fuel the AI trade. Palantir, the AI data-analytics
firm, topped expectations by a wide margin, sending its stock up almost 30% in
a single day. Industrial equipment maker Caterpillar beat estimates too,
pointing to strong demand tied to AI infrastructure buildouts. Chipmaker AMD
grew revenue by 50% year over year, yet its shares still fell after hours
because investors had priced in even more. This signals that good earnings
alone can no longer guarantee that a stock will rise when expectations are
already high.
Oil swings on Iran risk. Optimism over easing U.S.-Iran
tensions briefly pulled oil prices lower before renewed worries over the Strait
of Hormuz pushed them back up. Brent crude ended the week higher, around $83 per
barrel. A diplomatic breakthrough could bring energy costs down further, while
any disruption to shipping routes would push them back up and continue to put
pressure on prices.
The Week Ahead
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrives Wednesday (August
12), the Producer Price Index (PPI) Thursday (August 13), both closely watched
after last week's weak jobs report. Additionally, retail sales and consumer
sentiment data land Friday (August 14), while a handful of earnings reports
will test whether AI-related enthusiasm still supports the tech rally.
The best outcome pairs cooling inflation with resilient
spending. The toughest would combine sticky prices with softening demand.
